On September 30, 2026, Statistics Poland (GUS) published the flash estimate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. According to GUS, prices were 4.0 percent higher than in September 2025 and 0.7 percent higher than in August 2026. Economic media report that this is the highest reading in about 15 months, i.e., since mid-2025. For Poles in the USA who send money to their families, buy real estate in Poland, or plan vacations in the country, this is a signal worth noting.
Fuel is driving price growth
Data cited by portals rp.pl and forsal.pl shows that the acceleration is primarily driven by fuel. In September, fuel cost 36.1 percent more than a year earlier (in August, the annual growth rate was 24.2 percent), and compared to August, fuel prices increased by 9.2 percent. The Bezprawnik website links this jump to the expiration of the government’s CPN shielding program for fuels on September 1, 2026.
Energy carriers (gas, electricity, and others) increased in price by 4.9 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, food and non-alcoholic beverages were 0.5 percent cheaper than a year earlier, although prices rose by 0.1 percent on a monthly basis.
Core inflation is falling, the NBP target is far off
Analysts quoted by the media estimate that core inflation, which is the index excluding food and energy prices, dropped to about 3 percent from 3.3 percent in August. This means that price growth today is largely the effect of a single factor—fuel—rather than a broad increase in the prices of services and goods. The inflation target of the National Bank of Poland is 2.5 percent, so the result of 4.0 percent is clearly above the target. Whether and how the Monetary Policy Council will react remains an open question; analysts will wait for further data, including the final GUS reading for September.
What this means for the Polish community in the USA
- Support for family in Poland. More expensive fuel and energy raise the cost of everyday life for relatives, so the amounts sent to the country may in practice be worth less than a year ago. It is worth comparing transfer costs and exchange rates among different providers.
- Travel to Poland. Higher fuel prices may increase the cost of car rentals and travel around the country. When planning winter visits, it is a good idea to leave a larger margin in your budget.
- Savings and investments in Poland. With inflation above the NBP target, the importance of the real rate of return—meaning interest rates minus inflation—increases. Decisions regarding deposits, bonds, or purchasing an apartment are best discussed with an advisor who understands the tax rules in both countries.
What’s next
The flash estimate is preliminary. Final inflation data for September is usually published by GUS around the middle of the following month, at which point not only the overall result but also the structure of individual categories may change. Furthermore, these data cannot be used to draw conclusions about the US dollar to Polish zloty exchange rate, which depends on many factors. The information in this article is of a general nature and does not constitute financial advice.
If you are planning transfers, savings, or investments in Poland, Polish accountants and financial advisors from the Polish Pages directory can help you choose the right solutions.
