Iran responded with missiles to Ras Laffan in Qatar — a facility responsible for twenty percent of global LNG production. Donald Trump threatened that if Iran attacked Qatar again, the United States would “massively blow up the entire South Pars gas field with a force Iran has never seen.” And Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk explicitly refused to participate in the American mission to unblock the Strait of Hormuz.
For Poles in America, this is not a distant war in a distant region. It is a war that is already hitting their wallets, may delay arms deliveries to Poland, and forces Warsaw to make difficult alliance choices.
What happened in the last 48 hours
The pace of events is dizzying. Israel admitted to striking production infrastructure linked to Iran’s South Pars gas field and carried out attacks on Iranian naval targets — for the first time — in the Caspian Sea. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles at energy facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Fires broke out in Qatar’s Ras Laffan. Operations at the Habshan gas complex and the Bab oil and gas field in Abu Dhabi were halted.
Israel reported that it attacked two hundred targets in western and central Iran in the last 24 hours. Iran continues its missile attacks on Israel — an elderly couple was killed in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv by an Iranian missile, and at least four women died in a beauty salon in the West Bank from fragments of Iranian cluster munitions.
According to CNN reports, on March 19, an American F-35 fighter jet made an emergency landing after a combat mission over Iran — if reports of it being hit by Iranian fire are confirmed, it would be the first such case in the history of this aircraft. CENTCOM notes that the matter is still under investigation.
Strait of Hormuz: 97 percent fewer ships
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — through which twenty percent of the world’s oil trade normally passes — fell by approximately ninety-seven percent in the first week of March compared to the February average. Iran has de facto closed the strait to ships from Western countries, although it allows Turkish, Indian, and Iran-affiliated vessels to pass. Since the beginning of the war, over twenty incidents involving merchant ships and offshore infrastructure have been recorded in the strait area.
The price of Brent crude, which broke above $100 per barrel for the first time in four years at the beginning of March, peaked at over $119 and remains around $107–$115 — the highest levels in years. In California, gasoline already costs an average of $5.62 per gallon, according to AAA data. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released four hundred million barrels from strategic reserves — the largest release in the organization’s history. America temporarily lifted sanctions on thirty Russian tankers with already loaded oil to stabilize the market — which means that Russia, paradoxically, profits from the war with Iran.
Trump threatens NATO with a “very bad future”
President Trump called on allies to send warships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Europe’s initial response was cool. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that France “is not a party to the conflict” and would not participate in the operation in Hormuz. Great Britain only sent military planners to cooperate with CENTCOM. Trump warned that NATO faces a “very bad future” if allies do not get involved in securing the strait.
A few hours later, six European countries — Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands — and Japan issued a joint statement on their “readiness to take appropriate action to ensure safe passage through the Strait,” but without specific military commitments. The only country that expressed openness to participation was the United Arab Emirates.
Poland says: our ships are needed in the Baltic Sea
Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed Trump’s demands directly and bluntly. As Euronews reported, Tusk stated that Poland has other commitments within NATO — regarding land, air, and naval forces, which are still under development. He emphasized that Polish naval assets must serve the security of the Baltic Sea, and added that allies, including the Americans, understand this perfectly.
This position is crucial for several reasons. Poland spends nearly five percent of its GDP on defense — one of the highest rates in NATO. It is building one of the largest land armies in Europe. But its navy is relatively small and concentrated on the Baltic Sea, where the threat from Russia is direct and daily. Sending Polish ships to the Persian Gulf at a time when Russian drones are flying over Polish airspace would be strategic nonsense — and Tusk said so directly.
Pentagon asks for 200 billion dollars
According to the Associated Press, the Pentagon requested an additional two hundred billion dollars to fund war operations. This amount alone exceeds the annual defense budget of most NATO countries. At the same time, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged at its Wednesday meeting, admitting that the war’s impact on the American economy “remains unclear.”
High-ranking intelligence official Joe Kent resigned, claiming in an interview with Tucker Carlson that Israel had dragged the United States into the war. Trump called Kent’s resignation “a good thing” because he was “very weak on security issues.” Meanwhile, Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, found herself at the center of a political dispute — Democratic senators accuse her of public statements about the Iranian threat not aligning with the intelligence materials she presented behind closed doors.
Casualties: over 2000 killed
According to data collected by the media, over two thousand people have died across the Middle East since the beginning of the war. In Iran alone, Israeli and American strikes have killed over twelve hundred people, according to the Iranian Red Crescent. In Israel, fourteen people died as a result of Iranian attacks, and two more died from medical causes related to the shelling. Six American soldiers died in the crash of a KC-135 refueling plane — their remains were transported to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware on Wednesday in the presence of President Trump.
What this means for Poles in America
Gasoline and cost of living. Oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel mean further increases in gasoline prices in the USA. California has already exceeded $5.60 per gallon, and the rest of the country is heading in that direction. For millions of Poles commuting to work by car — from Greenpoint through Chicago to Houston — this is a direct hit to the household budget.
Dollar and transfers to Poland. Economic uncertainty and rising inflation are weakening the dollar. Anyone sending money to family in Poland will feel this with their next transfer. The zloty was already under pressure due to Polexit and the SAFE veto — the war in the Gulf adds another layer of risk.
Arms deliveries to Poland. The head of Polish military counterintelligence, General Stróżyk, previously warned that the war in the Middle East could affect the pace and scale of American arms deliveries to Poland. The Pentagon asking for 200 billion dollars for Iran means the Pentagon has less money and attention for modernizing the Polish army. Abrams tanks, Patriot systems, Apache helicopters — all are in line, and the line just got longer.
Poland’s position in NATO. Tusk’s refusal regarding the Hormuz mission is a double-edged sword. On the one hand — a rational decision: Poland does not have a fleet for the Persian Gulf and faces a real threat in the Baltic Sea. On the other hand — Trump just said that America should “rethink NATO.” Poland, saying “no” at a time when Trump is looking for allies, risks weakening relations that are the foundation of its security.
Third week with no end in sight
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard admitted before the Senate that the Iranian regime “appears intact,” though “largely weakened.” Iran has lost Supreme Leader Khamenei, security chief Larijani, Basij commander, and intelligence minister Khatib — but its power structure still functions. The new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — the son of the slain leader — rules, the IRGC controls the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s “eye for an eye” doctrine systematically expands the field of conflict across the entire region.
There are no signs of an approaching ceasefire. According to Reuters, Israel plans at least three more weeks of strikes on Iranian positions. Europe refuses direct participation in military actions but is holding talks about commercial escorts. Trump threatens allies and enemies simultaneously. Gasoline prices are rising every day.
For the Polish diaspora — as for all Americans — the question is no longer when the war will end, but how much it will cost before it ends.
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