Ian Brzezinski at PAC Council of National Directors Meeting in Washington D.C.

27 października, 2017

From Polish American Congress

Mr. Ian Brzezinski, Resident Senior Fellow of Brent Snowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council, was a luncheon guest speaker on Wednesday, September 27 at the Council of National Directors Meeting in Washington D.C. The following are key points from his speech:

• The Zapad exercises of September 14-20, 2017 were a rehearsal for a large-scale war.

• Since Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, which revealed the backwardness of Russian armed forces, the Kremlin has succeeded in making Russia’s armed forces much more effective and efficient and nearly a match for NATO. This was shown in 2014 by the invasion of Crimea which was far more professionally executed than the invasion of Georgia in 2008.

• The gap separating Russian armed forces from NATO has also narrowed. Today Russian submarines are quicker and quieter, cruise missiles more precise and tanks more effective.

• Russia is getting much better at area denial which may prevent the reinforcement of NATO assets in the Baltic states and Poland.

• Compared with the high level of deterrence presented by the Berlin brigade during the Cold War, Mr. Brzezinski stated that the enhanced forward presence of the NATO is not a robust deterrent.

• The NATO brigade of 4000 troops deployed from Estonia to the Suwalki gap is just too small.

• The Berlin brigade during the Cold War, which actually amounted to 9 battalions doubled the present strength of the NATO brigade was ready to defend itself and could be reinforced in a short time. No exercises have been held to show NATO’s determination to reinforce the NATO brigade in the East. This is why Mr. Brzezinski said: “I am concerned that today’s trip wire may not be as robust a deterrent as the Berlin brigade.”

• NATO exercises do not match Russia’s massive snap military exercises which deploy on short notice as many as 150,000 troops and material.

• Russia’s nuclear arsenal is well calibrated; NATO only has very small and very large nuclear weapons. This gives Russia an advantage.

Mr. Brzezinski recommends that as we move toward the NATO Summit in 2018, NATO conduct large scale readiness exercises. Moreover, the best chance for Poland to achieve national security is within a more robust NATO that challenges Russian revanchism.

Prepared by Klara Wisniewska and John Czop based on Mr. Ian Brzezinski’s speech at the Council of National Directors Meeting 2017 in Washington D.C.